<strong>New figures from Germany’s top public health body paint a sobering picture of cancer risk, while also revealing quiet progress.
Nearly half the population in Germany will face a cancer diagnosis at some point, according to fresh data released by the Robert Koch Institute. Yet behind that stark headline, the statistics also show falling death rates and a slow decline in new cases once age is taken into account.
Almost half will face cancer at some point
The Robert Koch Institute (RKI), Germany’s national public health authority, has published new estimates in its Epidemiological Bulletin that quantify lifetime cancer risk for the country’s residents.
According to the RKI, about 49% of men and 43% of women in Germany will receive a cancer diagnosis during their lifetime.
That means cancer will affect “almost every second person” over their life course. For many, the disease does not wait until very old age. Roughly one in six women and one in seven men are expected to confront cancer before their 65th birthday.
The figures come from the latest edition of the report “Cancer in Germany”, compiled by the national cancer registry and the Centre for Cancer Registry Data at the RKI. They provide one of the most detailed snapshots of how the disease is affecting a major European population.
More men than women affected
The RKI’s analysis shows a clear gender split in new cancer cases. In 2023, doctors in Germany diagnosed a tumour disease in roughly half a million people.
- Total new cancer cases: 517,800
- Men: around 276,400
- Women: around 241,400
Men account for a slightly larger share of new diagnoses. The median age at diagnosis for both sexes stands at 69 years. That reflects the strong link between cancer and ageing cells, but it does not mean younger adults are spared.
Some cancers hit earlier in life. Testicular cancer, for example, tends to affect younger men, often in their twenties, thirties or early forties. These cases are a reminder that anyone who notices persistent changes in their body should seek medical advice rather than waiting for routine screening age.
The four big tumour types
Although cancer can arise almost anywhere in the body, the latest data show that a relatively small group of tumour types still accounts for a large chunk of diagnoses.
About half of all new cancer cases in Germany in 2023 involved the prostate, breast, lung, or large intestine and rectum.
| Cancer type | Estimated new cases in 2023 | Mainly affects |
|---|---|---|
| Prostate cancer | 79,600 | Men |
| Breast cancer | 75,900 | Women (also men, very rarely) |
| Lung cancer | 58,300 | Both sexes |
| Colon and rectal cancer | 55,300 | Both sexes |
For men, prostate cancer is by far the most common diagnosis. For women, breast cancer leads the statistics. The second tier of risk looks strikingly similar for both genders: lung and bowel cancers rank just behind the leading sex‑specific tumours.
When looking at deaths, a different pattern appears. Tumours of the lung, bowel, pancreas and breast together account for nearly half of all cancer-related fatalities recorded in the national cancer registry. Some cancers are common but often treatable, while others are less frequent yet far more deadly.
Fewer deaths despite an ageing population
On first glance, the raw numbers remain daunting. In 2023, Germany’s cause-of-death statistics recorded around 229,000 deaths from cancer.
- Cancer deaths in men: about 123,000
- Cancer deaths in women: about 106,000
But once statisticians adjust for Germany’s ageing population, a more hopeful trend appears. Cancer death rates have dropped markedly over the last quarter of a century.
Adjusted for demographic change, cancer mortality has fallen by 31% in men and 21% in women over the past 25 years.
This decline reflects several overlapping factors: reduced smoking rates in some groups, better screening for diseases such as colon and breast cancer, and major progress in surgery, radiotherapy, and drug treatments. Newer targeted therapies and immunotherapies have also extended lives in certain tumour types.
The RKI notes that age-standardised rates of new cancer diagnoses are also edging downward. In other words, if you compare people of the same age now and 25 years ago, slightly fewer are getting cancer, not more. The overall number of cases still rises mainly because there are simply more older people living longer lives.
World cancer day puts the figures in focus
The figures were released in the run-up to World Cancer Day on 4 February, an international awareness day aimed at shining a light on the disease and driving action on prevention and treatment. For Germany’s health authorities, the new report offers both a warning and a sign of progress.
The warning is clear: the lifetime risk remains high, and cancer will continue to place a heavy burden on individuals, families, and health systems. The progress lies in the fact that, for many people, a diagnosis today is less likely to be a death sentence than it was a generation ago.
What these numbers mean for individuals
For a reader in the UK, US or elsewhere, the German data are still highly relevant. Cancer patterns differ slightly between countries, but broad trends are similar in many high-income nations: an ageing population, a heavy toll from lung and bowel cancers, and steadily improving survival.
A lifetime risk close to one in two does not mean that half of all people are doomed. Many cancers are caught early and successfully treated. Some grow very slowly and may never seriously affect quality of life. A significant share of risk also links to modifiable factors.
Health agencies typically highlight a familiar group of behaviours that influence cancer odds:
- Smoking and other forms of tobacco use
- Heavy alcohol consumption
- Long-term exposure to UV radiation from sun or tanning beds
- Obesity and lack of physical activity
- Unhealthy diets low in fibre and high in processed meats
- Certain infections, such as HPV or hepatitis B and C
Reducing these exposures will not eliminate risk, because genetics and plain bad luck still play a role. But shifts in behaviour across a population can meaningfully lower future cancer incidence, as seen with lung cancer trends in countries where smoking rates have dropped.
Key terms and how experts use them
Cancer statistics can be confusing, especially when they switch between “lifetime risk”, “incidence”, and “age-standardised rates”. A few definitions help clarify the picture:
- Lifetime risk describes the probability that a person will be diagnosed with cancer at any point from birth to death, given current conditions.
- Incidence means the number of new cases in a specific time period, usually a year.
- Mortality rate is the number of deaths in a population, adjusted for its size.
- Age-standardised rate adjusts figures to a standard age structure, so changes over time are not driven just by people living longer.
Public health planners rely on age-standardised rates to judge whether prevention and treatment are working. Without that adjustment, an ageing society like Germany, the UK or Japan will always show rising raw numbers, simply because more people reach ages where cancer becomes common.
A simple scenario: how ageing shapes the curve
Imagine two towns with 100,000 residents each. In Town A, most people are under 40. In Town B, many are over 65. Even if cancer risk at each age is identical, Town B will record more cases and more deaths, because its residents have lived long enough to hit higher-risk years.
This is why Germany can report a falling cancer death rate at the same time as total cancer deaths stay substantial. Better treatments and prevention lower the risk at each age, but a bigger pool of older people keeps absolute numbers high.
For individuals, that context matters. A diagnosis sits in a landscape where medical care is improving, screening offers chances to catch disease early, and public health measures are slowly bending the trend downward. The RKI’s message, timed with World Cancer Day, underlines both sides of that reality: cancer will touch many lives, yet steady gains are changing how that story unfolds.
